How closed revenue builds month over month, and how quickly the dollars from a new lead actually materialize. Built from the created-month cohort dataset.
The pipeline has closed $2,655,743 across 70 deals from 3,670 leads created between October 2025 and July 2026, at an average case value of $37,939. Revenue matures quickly: 31% of a lead's eventual revenue closes in the same month it is created, 68% by the end of the following month, and 87% within two months.
The remaining 13% arrives slowly over months four through seven, which means a real long tail exists for reps willing to work aged leads. The November 2025 cohort is the standout at $542,751 and $1,126 per lead, while the newest cohorts (April to July 2026) look light only because they have not had time to mature.
Each bar is the revenue that closed in that month, stacked on top of everything closed before it. The running "cum" figure under each month is the share of the $2.66M total booked through that point.
| Sale Month | Closed That Month | Cumulative | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-25 | $2,299 | $2,299 | 0.1% |
| Nov-25 | $301,856 | $304,155 | 11.5% |
| Dec-25 | $181,165 | $485,320 | 18.3% |
| Jan-26 | $324,609 | $809,929 | 30.5% |
| Feb-26 | $252,239 | $1,062,168 | 40.0% |
| Mar-26 | $416,967 | $1,479,135 | 55.7% |
| Apr-26 | $405,887 | $1,885,022 | 71.0% |
| May-26 | $234,659 | $2,119,681 | 79.8% |
| Jun-26 | $444,491 | $2,564,172 | 96.6% |
| Jul-26 | $91,571 | $2,655,743 | 100.0% |
| Total | $2,655,743 | $2,655,743 | 100.0% |
Measured from the month each lead is created. The blue line is the cumulative share of a cohort's revenue in hand by that many months out; the pale bars are what each individual month adds.
| Lag | Revenue | Added | Cumulative Captured | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 0 | $819,022 | 30.8% | 30.8% | Closed the same month the lead came in |
| Month 1 | $997,717 | 37.6% | 68.4% | Closed the month after |
| Month 2 | $487,240 | 18.3% | 86.8% | |
| Month 3 | $0 | 0.0% | 86.8% | No closes landed at this lag |
| Month 4 | $64,061 | 2.4% | 89.2% | |
| Month 5 | $160,579 | 6.0% | 95.2% | |
| Month 6 | $63,105 | 2.4% | 97.6% | |
| Month 7 | $64,019 | 2.4% | 100.0% |
Directional estimate: applying this capture curve to the still-maturing Feb–Jun 2026 cohorts implies roughly $217,884 of additional revenue may land as they age. Not booked, not a forecast — a maturity-adjusted read on cohorts that are not done yet.
Revenue attributed to the month each lead was created, with revenue-per-lead (amber line, right axis) to control for volume. Bar color flags how mature each cohort is, so recent months are not judged as finished.
| Created Month | Leads | Revenue | % of Total | Rev / Lead | Projected Ult. | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-25 | 460 | $158,058 | 6.0% | $344 | -- | Mature |
| Nov-25 | 482 | $542,751 | 20.4% | $1,126 | -- | Mature |
| Dec-25 | 374 | $342,587 | 12.9% | $916 | -- | Mature |
| Jan-26 | 425 | $403,872 | 15.2% | $950 | $413,848 | Mature |
| Feb-26 | 354 | $315,681 | 11.9% | $892 | $331,552 | Maturing |
| Mar-26 | 305 | $314,711 | 11.9% | $1,032 | $352,947 | Maturing |
| Apr-26 | 363 | $202,707 | 7.6% | $558 | $233,656 | Still filling in |
| May-26 | 423 | $163,363 | 6.2% | $386 | $188,305 | Still filling in |
| Jun-26 | 376 | $212,013 | 8.0% | $564 | $309,925 | Still filling in |
| Jul-26 | 108 | $0 | 0.0% | $0 | -- | Brand new |
| Total | 3,670 | $2,655,743 | 100.0% | $724 | -- |
68% of revenue closes within a month of the lead arriving. Every hour of first-response delay and every dropped early follow-up is where the biggest dollars leak.
The Nov 2025 and Mar 2026 cohorts returned $1,126 and $1,032 per lead against a $724 blended average. Trace what drove those months and buy more of it.
13% of revenue lands in months four through seven. That long tail is real money most reps abandon after 60 days. Put a defined 4-to-7-month touch sequence behind it.
Apr to Jun 2026 look weak on revenue-per-lead only because they are one to three months old. Score them against expected maturity (68% by month 1, 87% by month 2) before calling them underperformers.
Confirm whether the low Oct 2025 revenue-per-lead is a real result or a data-start artifact, so cohort comparisons rest on clean footing.
Method & caveats. Waterfall steps are revenue booked by sale/status month. The capture curve is the lag between lead-created month and close month, blended across all cohorts; because recent cohorts are still maturing, it slightly over-weights the early months, so the true long tail is likely a touch fatter than shown. "Projected Ultimate" is a directional maturity adjustment, not a committed forecast. July 2026 is a partial month. Figures reconcile to a $2,655,743 total on both the deal-count and revenue triangles.
Prepared by SGA Dental Partners Growth Team | Confidential